% 平均気温が1℃高くなるってことは...

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\section*{■平均気温が$1^\circ$C高くなるってことは\ldots ■}

西暦$2100$年には世界の平均気温が現在より$1^\circ$C高くなるとも $2^\circ$C高くなるとも言われている。高々$1^\circ$Cだ。まあ、ほんの少し温かくなるだけだから、人間の体はそれになじんでくれるだろう。しかも急に$1^\circ$C高くなるわけじゃない。$100$年かかって$1^\circ$C高くなるだけだ。私たちの子孫は十分な対応ができると思う。

もちろん$1$年のうちには暑い日もあれば寒い日もある。まして、たとえ春の季節の中でもまた冬に戻ったかと思うような寒い日がきたり、もう夏になっちまったのかと思うような暑い日がくることもある。季節はこうして気温の高低を繰り返しながら$1$年をうつろう。$1$年の平均気温が$20^\circ$Cといえば、日々の気温を全部足して$365$で割った答えが$20^\circ$Cになることを意味する。だったら平均気温が$21^\circ$Cになったところでたいした違いはないだろう。たまたま寒い日がちょっと少なく、暑い日がちょっと多くなればそうなるのだから。

こう考えている人がいたら、その人を極端な楽観主義者と呼ばせてもらおう。とんでもない。平均気温が$1^\circ$C高くなるってことはそんなに気楽に構えていられる事態じゃないのだ。

ここに用意した最初のグラフは、東京における最高気温の平年値の推移を示したグラフである(データは$1996$年の新聞の天気予報欄から得た数値なので、$1950$年〜$1980$年の平均値のはずだ)。$1$月$1$日から$12$月$31$日までの毎日の平年値を線でつないである。比較のために、その平年値よりちょうど $1^\circ$C高い仮想のグラフをかき込んでおいた。これが西暦$2100$年の仮想の平均気温ということになる。

平均気温より1度高い仮想の年間気温

これでは少々見にくいので、$7$月$20$日から$8$月$31$日までの推移を拡大したのが$2$番目のグラフである。下側のグラフが本来の平均気温、上側のグラフが$1^\circ$C高い仮想の平均気温である。

平均気温より1度高い仮想の7月〜8月の気温

本来の平均気温を見てほしい。このグラフから1年の最高気温は、$8$月$6$日から$8$月$12$日にかけての$7$日間で$31.5^\circ$Cを記録していることが見てとれる。つまりこの$7$日間の暑さを越えれば、徐々に涼しい過ごしやすい日がやってくることだろう。

ところで$1^\circ$C高い仮想の平均気温を見てほしい。もし未来の平均気温が現在より$1^\circ$C高いところで推移するなら、現在の暑さのピークは$7$月$27$日から始まることになる。そしてこの暑さが$8$月$23$日まで続く。この間$28$日である。

何ということだろう。平均気温がわずか$1^\circ$C高くなっただけで、最高の暑さが続く期間が$4$倍に増える。もし平均気温が$2^\circ$C上昇した場合には$31.5^\circ$C以上の日は$44$日におよぶ。$1$年の$12$\%もの日々が真夏の特に暑い日々になるのだ。

暑い気候が好きな人には歓迎すべきことだろうが、私には賛成できない。平均気温が高くなりすぎることは防止しよう。なぜなら、暑い日が増えても人間の体は順応するかもしれないが、水は相変わらず$0^\circ$Cで氷になり$100^\circ$Cで水蒸気になるのだから。

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%(平年)1月
\put( 1, 50.1){\circle*{.03}}\put( 2, 50.1){\circle*{.03}}\put( 3, 50.0){\circle*{.03}}\put( 4, 49.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 5, 49.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 6, 49.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 7, 49.4){\circle*{.03}}\put( 8, 49.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 9, 49.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 10, 49.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 11, 49.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 12, 49.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 13, 49.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 14, 49.1){\circle*{.03}}\put( 15, 49.1){\circle*{.03}}\put( 16, 49.1){\circle*{.03}}\put( 17, 48.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 18, 48.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 19, 48.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 20, 48.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 21, 48.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 22, 48.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 23, 48.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 24, 48.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 25, 48.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 26, 48.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 27, 48.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 28, 48.5){\circle*{.03}}\put( 29, 48.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 30, 48.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 31, 48.5){\circle*{.03}}
%2月
\put( 32, 48.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 33, 48.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 34, 48.5){\circle*{.03}}\put( 35, 48.5){\circle*{.03}}\put( 36, 48.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 37, 48.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 38, 48.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 39, 48.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 40, 49.1){\circle*{.03}}\put( 41, 49.1){\circle*{.03}}\put( 42, 49.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 43, 49.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 44, 49.4){\circle*{.03}}\put( 45, 49.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 46, 49.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 47, 49.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 48, 49.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 49, 49.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 50, 49.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 51, 49.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 52, 50.0){\circle*{.03}}\put( 53, 50.0){\circle*{.03}}\put( 54, 50.1){\circle*{.03}}\put( 55, 50.3){\circle*{.03}}\put( 56, 50.5){\circle*{.03}}\put( 57, 50.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 58, 50.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 59, 51.0){\circle*{.03}}\put( 60, 51.0){\circle*{.03}}
%3月
\put( 61, 51.0){\circle*{.03}}\put( 62, 51.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 63, 51.4){\circle*{.03}}\put( 64, 51.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 65, 52.1){\circle*{.03}}\put( 66, 52.5){\circle*{.03}}\put( 67, 52.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 68, 53.0){\circle*{.03}}\put( 69, 53.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 70, 53.4){\circle*{.03}}\put( 71, 53.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 72, 53.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 73, 53.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 74, 54.3){\circle*{.03}}\put( 75, 54.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 76, 54.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 77, 55.0){\circle*{.03}}\put( 78, 55.0){\circle*{.03}}\put( 79, 55.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 80, 55.5){\circle*{.03}}\put( 81, 55.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 82, 56.1){\circle*{.03}}\put( 83, 56.4){\circle*{.03}}\put( 84, 56.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 85, 57.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 86, 57.5){\circle*{.03}}\put( 87, 57.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 88, 58.1){\circle*{.03}}\put( 89, 58.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 90, 59.1){\circle*{.03}}\put( 91, 59.5){\circle*{.03}}
%4月
\put( 92, 59.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 93, 60.4){\circle*{.03}}\put( 94, 60.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 95, 61.3){\circle*{.03}}\put( 96, 61.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 97, 61.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 98, 62.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 99, 62.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(100, 62.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(101, 63.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(102, 63.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(103, 63.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(104, 64.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(105, 64.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(106, 64.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(107, 64.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(108, 65.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(109, 65.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(110, 66.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(111, 66.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(112, 66.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(113, 67.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(114, 67.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(115, 67.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(116, 68.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(117, 68.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(118, 69.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(119, 69.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(120, 69.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(121, 69.8){\circle*{.03}}
%5月
\put(122, 69.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(123, 70.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(124, 70.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(125, 70.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(126, 71.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(127, 71.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(128, 71.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(129, 71.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(130, 71.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(131, 71.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(132, 72.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(133, 72.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(134, 72.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(135, 72.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(136, 73.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(137, 73.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(138, 73.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(139, 73.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(140, 73.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(141, 73.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(142, 73.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(143, 73.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(144, 73.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(145, 74.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(146, 74.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(147, 74.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(148, 75.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(149, 75.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(150, 75.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(151, 75.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(152, 75.9){\circle*{.03}}
%6月
\put(153, 76.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(154, 76.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(155, 76.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(156, 76.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(157, 76.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(158, 76.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(159, 76.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(160, 76.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(161, 76.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(162, 76.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(163, 77.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(164, 77.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(165, 77.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(166, 77.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(167, 77.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(168, 77.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(169, 77.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(170, 77.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(171, 77.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(172, 77.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(173, 77.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(174, 78.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(175, 78.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(176, 78.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(177, 78.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(178, 78.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(179, 78.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(180, 78.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(181, 78.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(182, 78.8){\circle*{.03}}
%7月
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%8月
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%9月
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%10月
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%11月
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%12月
\put(336, 57.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(337, 56.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(338, 56.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(339, 56.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(340, 56.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(341, 55.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(342, 55.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(343, 55.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(344, 55.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(345, 55.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(346, 54.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(347, 54.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(348, 54.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(349, 53.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(350, 53.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(351, 53.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(352, 53.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(353, 53.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(354, 52.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(355, 52.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(356, 52.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(357, 52.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(358, 51.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(359, 51.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(360, 51.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(361, 51.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(362, 51.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(363, 51.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(364, 50.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(365, 50.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(366, 50.3){\circle*{.03}}

%(平年+1)1月
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%2月
\put( 32, 50.5){\circle*{.03}}\put( 33, 50.5){\circle*{.03}}\put( 34, 50.3){\circle*{.03}}\put( 35, 50.3){\circle*{.03}}\put( 36, 50.5){\circle*{.03}}\put( 37, 50.5){\circle*{.03}}\put( 38, 50.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 39, 50.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 40, 50.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 41, 50.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 42, 51.0){\circle*{.03}}\put( 43, 51.0){\circle*{.03}}\put( 44, 51.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 45, 51.4){\circle*{.03}}\put( 46, 51.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 47, 51.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 48, 51.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 49, 51.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 50, 51.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 51, 51.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 52, 51.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 53, 51.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 54, 51.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 55, 52.1){\circle*{.03}}\put( 56, 52.3){\circle*{.03}}\put( 57, 52.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 58, 52.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 59, 52.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 60, 52.8){\circle*{.03}}
%3月
\put( 61, 52.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 62, 53.0){\circle*{.03}}\put( 63, 53.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 64, 53.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 65, 53.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 66, 54.3){\circle*{.03}}\put( 67, 54.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 68, 54.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 69, 55.0){\circle*{.03}}\put( 70, 55.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 71, 55.4){\circle*{.03}}\put( 72, 55.5){\circle*{.03}}\put( 73, 55.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 74, 56.1){\circle*{.03}}\put( 75, 56.4){\circle*{.03}}\put( 76, 56.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 77, 56.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 78, 56.8){\circle*{.03}}\put( 79, 57.0){\circle*{.03}}\put( 80, 57.3){\circle*{.03}}\put( 81, 57.5){\circle*{.03}}\put( 82, 57.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 83, 58.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 84, 58.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 85, 59.0){\circle*{.03}}\put( 86, 59.3){\circle*{.03}}\put( 87, 59.5){\circle*{.03}}\put( 88, 59.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 89, 60.4){\circle*{.03}}\put( 90, 60.9){\circle*{.03}}\put( 91, 61.3){\circle*{.03}}
%4月
\put( 92, 61.7){\circle*{.03}}\put( 93, 62.2){\circle*{.03}}\put( 94, 62.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 95, 63.1){\circle*{.03}}\put( 96, 63.5){\circle*{.03}}\put( 97, 63.6){\circle*{.03}}\put( 98, 64.0){\circle*{.03}}\put( 99, 64.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(100, 64.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(101, 65.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(102, 65.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(103, 65.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(104, 66.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(105, 66.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(106, 66.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(107, 66.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(108, 67.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(109, 67.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(110, 67.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(111, 68.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(112, 68.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(113, 68.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(114, 69.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(115, 69.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(116, 69.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(117, 70.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(118, 70.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(119, 71.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(120, 71.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(121, 71.6){\circle*{.03}}
%5月
\put(122, 71.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(123, 72.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(124, 72.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(125, 72.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(126, 72.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(127, 73.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(128, 73.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(129, 73.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(130, 73.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(131, 73.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(132, 73.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(133, 74.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(134, 74.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(135, 74.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(136, 74.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(137, 74.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(138, 74.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(139, 74.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(140, 75.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(141, 75.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(142, 75.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(143, 75.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(144, 75.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(145, 76.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(146, 76.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(147, 76.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(148, 76.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(149, 77.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(150, 77.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(151, 77.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(152, 77.7){\circle*{.03}}
%6月
\put(153, 78.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(154, 78.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(155, 78.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(156, 78.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(157, 78.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(158, 78.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(159, 78.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(160, 78.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(161, 78.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(162, 78.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(163, 78.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(164, 78.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(165, 79.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(166, 79.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(167, 79.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(168, 79.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(169, 79.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(170, 79.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(171, 79.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(172, 79.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(173, 79.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(174, 79.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(175, 79.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(176, 79.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(177, 79.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(178, 79.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(179, 80.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(180, 80.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(181, 80.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(182, 80.6){\circle*{.03}}
%7月
\put(183, 80.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(184, 81.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(185, 81.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(186, 81.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(187, 81.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(188, 82.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(189, 82.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(190, 83.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(191, 83.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(192, 83.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(193, 84.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(194, 84.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(195, 84.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(196, 85.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(197, 85.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(198, 85.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(199, 86.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(200, 86.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(201, 86.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(202, 87.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(203, 87.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(204, 87.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(205, 87.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(206, 88.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(207, 88.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(208, 88.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(209, 88.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(210, 89.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(211, 89.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(212, 89.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(213, 89.7){\circle*{.03}}
%8月
\put(214, 89.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(215, 89.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(216, 89.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(217, 90.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(218, 90.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(219, 90.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(220, 90.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(221, 90.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(222, 90.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(223, 90.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(224, 90.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(225, 90.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(226, 90.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(227, 90.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(228, 90.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(229, 89.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(230, 89.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(231, 89.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(232, 89.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(233, 89.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(234, 88.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(235, 88.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(236, 88.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(237, 88.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(238, 88.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(239, 88.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(240, 88.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(241, 87.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(242, 87.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(243, 87.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(244, 87.2){\circle*{.03}}
%9月
\put(245, 86.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(246, 86.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(247, 86.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(248, 86.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(249, 86.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(250, 85.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(251, 85.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(252, 84.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(253, 84.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(254, 83.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(255, 83.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(256, 83.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(257, 82.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(258, 82.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(259, 82.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(260, 81.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(261, 81.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(262, 80.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(263, 80.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(264, 80.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(265, 79.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(266, 79.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(267, 78.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(268, 78.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(269, 78.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(270, 77.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(271, 77.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(272, 77.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(273, 76.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(274, 76.2){\circle*{.03}}
%10月
\put(275, 75.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(276, 75.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(277, 75.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(278, 74.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(279, 74.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(280, 74.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(281, 74.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(282, 74.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(283, 73.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(284, 73.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(285, 73.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(286, 72.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(287, 72.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(288, 72.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(289, 71.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(290, 71.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(291, 71.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(292, 71.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(293, 71.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(294, 71.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(295, 70.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(296, 70.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(297, 70.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(298, 69.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(299, 69.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(300, 69.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(301, 69.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(302, 69.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(303, 69.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(304, 68.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(305, 68.5){\circle*{.03}}
%11月
\put(306, 68.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(307, 68.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(308, 68.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(309, 67.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(310, 67.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(311, 67.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(312, 66.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(313, 66.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(314, 66.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(315, 65.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(316, 65.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(317, 64.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(318, 64.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(319, 64.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(320, 63.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(321, 63.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(322, 62.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(323, 62.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(324, 62.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(325, 61.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(326, 61.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(327, 61.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(328, 60.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(329, 60.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(330, 60.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(331, 60.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(332, 59.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(333, 59.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(334, 59.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(335, 59.0){\circle*{.03}}
%12月
\put(336, 59.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(337, 58.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(338, 58.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(339, 58.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(340, 58.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(341, 57.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(342, 57.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(343, 57.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(344, 57.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(345, 56.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(346, 56.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(347, 56.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(348, 55.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(349, 55.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(350, 55.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(351, 55.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(352, 55.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(353, 54.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(354, 54.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(355, 54.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(356, 54.1){\circle*{.03}}\put(357, 53.9){\circle*{.03}}\put(358, 53.7){\circle*{.03}}\put(359, 53.6){\circle*{.03}}\put(360, 53.4){\circle*{.03}}\put(361, 53.2){\circle*{.03}}\put(362, 53.0){\circle*{.03}}\put(363, 52.8){\circle*{.03}}\put(364, 52.5){\circle*{.03}}\put(365, 52.3){\circle*{.03}}\put(366, 52.1){\circle*{.03}}

\end{picture}
\end{center}
\vspace{2\baselineskip}

%Jul20-Aug31

\begin{center}
\unitlength=4pt
\begin{picture}(50, 35)(200, 295)
\put(200, 295){\line(1,0){50}}
\multiput(202, 294.5)(1, 0){43}{\line(0,1){1}} %横目盛
\put(200, 295){\line(0,1){35}}
\put(207, 294){\makebox(0, 0)[t]{\fbox{\tiny$7$月}}}
\put(228, 294){\makebox(0, 0)[t]{\fbox{\tiny$8$月}}}
\put(199, 300){\makebox(0, 0)[r]{\tiny$30^\circ$C}} %縦目盛
\put(199, 310){\makebox(0, 0)[r]{\tiny$31^\circ$C}}
\put(199, 320){\makebox(0, 0)[r]{\tiny$32^\circ$C}}
\put(199, 315){\line(1,0){50}}
\put(199, 315){\makebox(0, 0)[r]{\tiny$31.5^\circ$C}}

\put(219, 303){\makebox(0, 0)[r]{\fbox{\tiny Aug 6}}}
\put(219, 315){\line(-1,-4){2.5}}
\put(225, 303){\makebox(0, 0)[l]{\fbox{\tiny Aug 12}}}
\put(225, 315){\line(1,-4){2.5}}
\put(209, 327){\makebox(0, 0){\fbox{\tiny Jul 27}}}
\put(209, 315){\line(0,1){10}}
\put(236, 327){\makebox(0, 0){\fbox{\tiny Aug 23}}}
\put(236, 315){\line(0,1){10}}

%(平年)7月
\put(202, 296){\circle*{.5}}\put(203, 298){\circle*{.5}}\put(204, 299){\circle*{.5}}\put(205, 300){\circle*{.5}}\put(206, 302){\circle*{.5}}\put(207, 303){\circle*{.5}}\put(208, 304){\circle*{.5}}\put(209, 305){\circle*{.5}}\put(210, 307){\circle*{.5}}\put(211, 309){\circle*{.5}}\put(212, 310){\circle*{.5}}\put(213, 311){\circle*{.5}}
%8月
\put(214, 312){\circle*{.5}}\put(215, 312){\circle*{.5}}\put(216, 312){\circle*{.5}}\put(217, 313){\circle*{.5}}\put(218, 314){\circle*{.5}}\put(219, 315){\circle*{.5}}\put(220, 315){\circle*{.5}}\put(221, 315){\circle*{.5}}\put(222, 315){\circle*{.5}}\put(223, 315){\circle*{.5}}\put(224, 315){\circle*{.5}}\put(225, 315){\circle*{.5}}\put(226, 314){\circle*{.5}}\put(227, 313){\circle*{.5}}\put(228, 313){\circle*{.5}}\put(229, 312){\circle*{.5}}\put(230, 311){\circle*{.5}}\put(231, 310){\circle*{.5}}\put(232, 309){\circle*{.5}}\put(233, 307){\circle*{.5}}\put(234, 306){\circle*{.5}}\put(235, 305){\circle*{.5}}\put(236, 305){\circle*{.5}}\put(237, 304){\circle*{.5}}\put(238, 304){\circle*{.5}}\put(239, 303){\circle*{.5}}\put(240, 302){\circle*{.5}}\put(241, 301){\circle*{.5}}\put(242, 300){\circle*{.5}}\put(243, 299){\circle*{.5}}\put(244, 297){\circle*{.5}}

%(平年+1)7月
\put(202, 306){\circle{.5}}\put(203, 308){\circle{.5}}\put(204, 309){\circle{.5}}\put(205, 310){\circle{.5}}\put(206, 312){\circle{.5}}\put(207, 313){\circle{.5}}\put(208, 314){\circle{.5}}\put(209, 315){\circle{.5}}\put(210, 317){\circle{.5}}\put(211, 319){\circle{.5}}\put(212, 320){\circle{.5}}\put(213, 321){\circle{.5}}
%8月
\put(214, 322){\circle{.5}}\put(215, 322){\circle{.5}}\put(216, 322){\circle{.5}}\put(217, 323){\circle{.5}}\put(218, 324){\circle{.5}}\put(219, 325){\circle{.5}}\put(220, 325){\circle{.5}}\put(221, 325){\circle{.5}}\put(222, 325){\circle{.5}}\put(223, 325){\circle{.5}}\put(224, 325){\circle{.5}}\put(225, 325){\circle{.5}}\put(226, 324){\circle{.5}}\put(227, 323){\circle{.5}}\put(228, 323){\circle{.5}}\put(229, 322){\circle{.5}}\put(230, 321){\circle{.5}}\put(231, 320){\circle{.5}}\put(232, 319){\circle{.5}}\put(233, 317){\circle{.5}}\put(234, 316){\circle{.5}}\put(235, 315){\circle{.5}}\put(236, 315){\circle{.5}}\put(237, 314){\circle{.5}}\put(238, 314){\circle{.5}}\put(239, 313){\circle{.5}}\put(240, 312){\circle{.5}}\put(241, 311){\circle{.5}}\put(242, 310){\circle{.5}}\put(243, 309){\circle{.5}}\put(244, 307){\circle{.5}}

\end{picture}
\end{center}

\end{document}